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Mid-quarter Outlook - Overview
Volatility and activity in markets have been significantly lower in 2023 so far as the narrative of recession competes with a strong job market and a possible pause in the Fed's tightening. This series of videos examines major categories of instrument in turn with summaries of the first quarter's events and an outline of possibilities into the summer.
Mid-quarter Outlook - Forex
Despite widespread expectations late in Q1 that the Fed will start cutting rates from September, the members of the FOMC themselves remain determined that this won't happen and some have even left the door open for rates to rise further. The crucial meeting of the Fed on 14 June is likely to determine the US dollar's direction for much of the summer, while for other major currencies inflation remains central for trying to project central banks' actions or lack thereof.
Mid-quarter Outlook - Oil
OPEC+'s surprise cut to supply which is due to start from May shocked markets and led to a huge weekend gap up for oil at the beginning of the second quarter. Since then, though, crude has looked less positive as participants in markets focus on somewhat weaker data from China and the dominant narrative of an imminent or upcoming recession. Traders of oil are also likely to concentrate on non-OPEC+ production of oil, particularly in the USA.
Mid-quarter Outlook - Gold
Like bitcoin, gold made gains as the financial system in the USA faced problems in March. The metal has also made gains as traders increasingly expected the Fed to pause its rate hikes this summer and possible pivot in September or the fourth quarter of the year. As for bitcoin, though, an ongoing strong uptrend is questionable because the area around $2,000 is a crucial psychological zone of resistance.
Mid-quarter Outlook - Bitcoin
Bitcoin was one of the main gainers from 'flight to safety' during the banking crisis in the USA and Switzerland in March. It seems that 2023 has brought a return of relative confidence in exchanges and crypto in general after negativity in the fourth quarter of 2022. However, with the price consistently unable to close above $30,500, the recent range seems likely to continue until a clear new driver or narrative reaches markets.
Mid-quarter Outlook - Stock Market
2023 has been relatively quiet so far in stock markets apart from, obviously, financial shares. The trend of increasing focus on value and dividends seems to be holding, but now the stage might be set for further recovery by some tech shares amid AI mania. China's recovery and how quickly that might continue is also an important theme for shares as summer approaches.
Podcast - shares (stocks)
This podcast considers the role of CFDs on shares in diversification as well as their traditional opportunity, bidirectional trading. Learn more about daytrading equity CFDs here.
Podcast - energies
Chris gives an overview in this podcast of how oil can be traded responsibly and productively despite its relatively high volatility: he stresses the importance of geopolitics.
Podcast - metals
Stanislav and Michael discuss here how gold, silver, platinum and palladium move on different factors and how bigger movements than forex bring opportunities and challenges.
Podcast - indices
Although indices are traditionally used mainly for hedging, Yip Chun explains in this podcast that they are a highly versatile type of CFD that can be traded with a range of strategies.
Podcast - forex
Here’s a look at the most popular type of CFD, foreign exchange. Stanislav explains how leverage and short-term approaches create unique opportunities with relatively lower risk.
Podcast - cryptocurrencies
This podcast examines the increasing popularity of CFDs on bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, looking specifically at the pros and cons of long-term trading.
Keeping your cool
Although trading necessarily involves some exposure to emotions, Stan outlines in this podcast how you can expand the role of logical thinking and develop confidence.
Making the most of the news
Stanislav and Michael discuss the importance of preparing for the most important news. Stan also explains tried-and-tested habits for reacting to unexpected events.
Time to trade
This podcast looks at the possible opportunities and challenges of trading at different times of day plus Chris’ informed opinion that the European session can offer the best of all worlds.
Off-chart research can be time-consuming and confusing. Chris and Michael examine in this podcast how to avoid these problems and look at some of their favourite news sources.
General habits for trading
Chris and Michael discuss the roles of stops and targets and taking breaks. Don’t miss Chris’ succinct outline of why he favours manually updating stops over trailing stops.